Latest Developments in The Rubber Industry (May 2026)

Latest Developments in the Rubber Industry (May 2026)
1, Natural rubber prices remain high, and the supply-demand gap is driving up the market
Latest price: As of May 26, 2026, the rubber futures price is 17250 yuan/ton; The spot price is in the range of 17500-17900 yuan/ton, up 14% from the beginning of the year, and the futures price is up 11% from the beginning of the year
.
Core reasons for the increase:
Shortage on the supply side: The global demand for natural rubber is expected to reach 15.602 million tons by 2026, with a production of only 15.324 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of over 270000 tons; The main production areas of Yunnan, Thailand, and Vietnam continue to suffer from drought, with limited incremental growth in the early stages of harvesting, further exacerbating supply shortages
.
Demand side support: The global automotive industry has moderately recovered, China's new energy vehicle production and sales have increased, the demand for tire replacement in Europe and America has rebounded, coupled with the acceleration of consumption in emerging markets in Africa, downstream demand is stable; The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, indirectly driving up the price of synthetic rubber and supporting the price of natural rubber in reverse
.
Short term trend: Southeast Asia enters a cutting period in May, with a slight increase in supply and a possible slight price correction to 16500-17000 yuan/ton; June marks the peak season for summer tires, with a clear supply-demand gap. Prices are expected to strengthen again, with a long-term target price of 18500-19000 yuan/ton
.
2, Industry policies and enterprise development: K-shaped differentiation, transformation towards "three modernizations"
In April 2026, the China Rubber Industry Association organized a full industry chain dialogue between upstream and downstream enterprises, predicting that the industry will present a K-shaped differentiation: overcapacity and fierce competition in the low-end sector, strong demand in the high-end field, and enterprises need to transform towards differentiation, high-end, and customization
.
Core transformation direction:
Tire materials for new energy vehicles: New energy vehicles have higher requirements for tire wear and temperature rise performance. Domestic enterprises still need technological breakthroughs in reducing the zinc content of tread materials and adapting to large deformation working conditions
.
Sustainable materials: Global tire companies accelerate the layout of bio based, renewable, and recyclable materials, with recycled carbon black and low rolling resistance rubber becoming research and development priorities
.
Future industrial supporting materials: new formats such as embodied intelligence and humanoid robots have put forward new demands for rubber materials, and upstream and downstream need to collaborate to research and adapt formulas and processes