Natural rubber prices are at a two-year high. Although the tapping season began earlier this year, drought in key production regions has constrained output. Currently, the purchase price for raw rubber stands at approximately 17 yuan per kilogram, with spot prices ranging between 17,500 and 17,900 yuan per ton-an increase of about 14% since the start of the year. These high prices have incentivized rubber farmers to increase tapping activity.
The industry has entered a phase characterized by a "tendency to rise rather than fall." According to analysis from COFCO Futures, as the rubber production capacity cycle shifts, the stimulatory effect of high prices on supply is diminishing year by year. Meanwhile, the impact of abnormal weather on output has become more pronounced, leading to greater upward price elasticity and an overall "slow bull" market trend.
In the short term, an increase in supply is anticipated. While improved tapping conditions in northeastern Thailand are gradually boosting the supply of raw materials, rainfall in the southern production regions is hindering tapping operations. Consequently, short-term supply remains tight, and the market is expected to experience wide-ranging fluctuations.