Natural Rubber Industry Situation and Future Outlook in 2024 in China
一． Natural Rubber Production in 2024 in China
(1).Overall Production Situation is Relatively Good
In 2024, my country's natural rubber production situation was generally good, with greater fluctuations in production rhythm compared to previous years, and a significant increase in production during the peak season. Pest and disease damage was relatively light throughout the year, exhibiting distinct seasonal characteristics. Powdery mildew was moderately prevalent in the main production areas, affecting an area exceeding 13 million mu (1 mu ≈ 666.7 m2). Anthracnose, monsoon defoliation disease, and tapping panel dryness occurred locally. Insect pests were mainly spider mites and bark beetles, generally occurring at a low level, with sporadic occurrences of scale insects and localized moderate occurrences of slugs, having a limited impact on natural rubber yield. Root diseases and bark necrosis in second and third-generation rubber plantations showed an upward trend. In 2024, the Pacific Rim region was in the later stages of this La Niña-El Niño cycle, with drastic climate changes. Rainfall in China's main natural rubber production areas was higher than average, and the impact of extreme weather events such as typhoons and floods was more severe than in previous years.
(2).Production Reaches a Historical High
In 2024, stimulated by continued government support policies and the stabilization and recovery of rubber prices, rubber farmers' production enthusiasm increased significantly. According to production data, my country's dry rubber production reached a historical high of 922,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%. By production area, Yunnan Province's production situation was generally normal, with production basically unchanged from the previous year, reaching 531,000 tons of dry rubber; Hainan Province's main production cities (counties) in the central and western regions, such as Baisha and Qiongzhong, were less affected by typhoons, and the recovery of rubber prices significantly incentivized tapping production, resulting in a slight increase in annual production compared to the previous year, reaching 377,000 tons; Guangdong Province, due to excessive rainfall during the rainy season and the impact of Super Typhoon "Magee," saw a 21.6% year-on-year decrease in effective tapping days, resulting in a decline in natural rubber production to 14,000 tons.
(3).Planting Area Remains Stable with a Slight Decrease
Mainly due to the damage to rubber plantations caused by Typhoon "Magee," my country's natural rubber planting area declined slightly. According to production scheduling, the planted area in 2024 was 16.8 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. Of this, Yunnan accounted for 8.48 million mu, Hainan 7.62 million mu, and Guangdong 700,000 mu. The national tapping area was 12.21 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. According to data released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), in 2024, my country's natural rubber planted area ranked 4th globally, after Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia; and its tapping area ranked 3rd globally, after Thailand and Indonesia.
Natural Rubber Trade Situation in 2024 in China
(I) Decreased Imports and Increased Prices of Natural Rubber
In 2024, my country's natural rubber imports decreased significantly, reaching their lowest level since 2021, while the average import price continued to rise.
According to customs statistics, the total import volume for the year was 5.6589 million tons (latex data not converted to dry weight), with a total import value of US$9.687 billion; the total export volume was 83,900 tons, with a total export value of US$219 million, resulting in a trade deficit of US$9.468 billion. Specifically, imports of natural rubber amounted to 2.3923 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.39%, with an import value of US$3.956 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.77%, and an average import price of US$1653.91/ton, a year-on-year increase of 26.45%; imports of mixed rubber amounted to 3.2133 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.22%, with an import value of US$5.422 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%, and an average import price of US$1687.37/ton, a year-on-year increase of 22.27%; imports of compounded rubber increased slightly compared to the previous year, with an import volume of 53,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, and an import value of US$308 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.68%.
(II) Concentrated Import Sources
In 2024, the top five countries supplying natural rubber to my country were Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Côte d'Ivoire, accounting for 89.1% of the total import volume (Table 1). In recent years, the circulation and acceptance of natural rubber from Africa in the domestic market have significantly increased, and my country's imports of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire have also continued to grow. However, in 2024, due to the impact of the EUDR policy, a large amount of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire was exported to the EU market, and for the first time, my country's total imports of natural rubber from Myanmar surpassed those from Côte d'Ivoire.
