China's SBS rubber output is estimated at 52,700 tons in September 2026, representing a month-on-month decline of 20.04% and a year-on-year drop of 36.99%. The sharp contraction was driven by widespread production shutdowns and maintenance at major facilities, including Hunan Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, Tianjin LG, and Gulei Petrochemical, while several other plants continued to operate at reduced loads.
For the January-September period, cumulative SBS supply is estimated at 550,500 tons, down 23.47% from the same period in 2025. The supply contraction has been severe enough to provide some bottom support for prices, despite weak demand.
The primary cause of the production cuts is a severe cost inversion. Feedstock butadiene prices surged in early September, with Sinopec raising its price for five consecutive days, accumulating an increase of RMB 2,100 per ton to reach RMB 14,600 per ton. Styrene prices also rose by nearly RMB 1,000 per ton. As of September 3, the theoretical cost for dry SBS was RMB 15,990 per ton, resulting in a theoretical loss of RMB 1,690 per ton. Oil-extended SBS faced an even larger loss of RMB 1,934 per ton.
On the demand side, downstream shoe manufacturers are operating at only 23% capacity utilization, with orders described as lukewarm. Road construction demand has also underperformed expectations due to high asphalt costs and funding constraints. The market is currently characterized by both weakened supply and weakened demand, though the deeper supply contraction provides some price support.