"Vietnamese 3L rubber is priced at 18,300 yuan per ton (tax included, ex-warehouse); Thai Ribbed Smoked Sheets (RSS) are at 18,000 yuan per ton (tax included, ex-warehouse); and Indonesian RSS No. 1 is at 22,450 yuan per ton (tax included, ex-warehouse)."
On May 14, a business specialist from a trading company-firmly established in the rubber industry for over two decades-provided Jiemian News with the latest rubber price quotes.
These prices represent an increase of approximately 20% compared to the beginning of the year.
Since the start of 2026, natural rubber prices have embarked on a distinct upward trend. On the first trading day following the May Day holiday, domestic natural rubber futures prices decisively breached the critical threshold of 18,000 yuan per ton, hitting a new high not seen since 2025.
On May 14, the benchmark domestic rubber futures contract briefly surpassed 18,200 yuan per ton before ultimately closing at 17,700 yuan per ton, marking a decline of 1.09%.
"Current spot market supplies are tight," the specialist added. "Rubber raw material prices are constantly fluctuating-changing day by day-and they could very well climb even higher in the near future."
"The marketplace is a battlefield; every day is incredibly hectic," the specialist told Jiemian News, describing his current workload. His company maintains warehouse facilities across multiple locations, including Shanghai, Qingdao, Zhejiang, and Guangzhou.
Ranked alongside petroleum, steel, and coal as one of the "Four Pillars" of industrial raw materials, natural rubber serves as a key input for a wide range of downstream products-from tires and medical gloves to footwear-touching upon virtually every aspect of daily life.
According to data from the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), the current global consumption share of natural rubber remains stable at 47%, while synthetic rubber accounts for approximately 53%. When downstream products demand specific core attributes-such as strength and elasticity-natural rubber stands as an irreplaceable choice.
The world's primary natural rubber production hubs and export centers are concentrated in Southeast Asia. Data from Guojin Futures indicates that Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam collectively produce nearly 70% of the global rubber supply, with Thailand and Indonesia alone accounting for nearly 60% of the world's output. As the world's largest consumer of rubber and the leading importer of natural rubber, China's demand has consistently served as a key bellwether for the industry market.
The factor tipping the global supply-demand balance this year is an irreversible structural shift on the supply side.
The latest data released by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reveals that by 2026, global demand for natural rubber is projected to climb to 15.602 million tons, while production is expected to reach only 15.324 million tons.
This implies that the global market will face a supply-demand deficit of approximately 400,000 tons. The market landscape is officially transitioning from a previous state of "cyclical surplus" to one of "structural shortage."
Why is the rubber supply running short?