Natural Rubber: Prices Continue To Rise, Driven By Supply And Demand Synergy

Since 2026, the price of natural rubber has shown a single-directional upward trend. On May 27, the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange for rubber (2609) closed at 17,395 yuan per ton, with an annual increase of 11.9%; the spot price was 17,391.67 yuan per ton, up 11.66% from the beginning of the year. . The key driving factors include:
Substantial reduction in supply: The major production areas such as Thailand have experienced continuous drought since February 2025. According to the ANRPC data, from April 2025 to March 2026, the cumulative production of the major producing countries over 12 months decreased by 85,000 tons (a decrease of 0.77%). Due to the inability of rubber trees to quickly resume production after being cut, the supply elasticity is extremely low. The slight imbalance between supply and demand is magnified by the market, leading to an increase in price fluctuations. .
Alternative demand emerges: The price gap between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has returned to the level before March. The price of cis-butadiene rubber (14,890 yuan/ton) is lower than that of natural rubber. Downstream enterprises have increased their purchases of natural rubber as a substitute. .
Long-term production capacity bottleneck: The rubber trees in major production areas are aging, suffering from diseases, and the land is being converted to crops with higher yields. The global supply of natural rubber is likely to enter a shrinking cycle in the next decade. .
However, it should be noted that the overall performance of the rubber sector in the A-share market was weaker than the increase in rubber prices (the sector rose by 6.58% in 2026, which was lower than the 11% increase in rubber prices). The main reason for this is that the sector covers both upstream and downstream enterprises: upstream resource-based enterprises benefited from the price increase, while downstream tire factories and product enterprises faced cost pressure, resulting in significant differences in profit expectations. .