The conflict between Israel and Iran has triggered profound shifts in the global energy landscape, placing the worldwide supply of rubber and plastics under considerable pressure. Against this backdrop, domestic exports of products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and ABS have seen a steady surge in activity, bolstered by China's massive industrial scale and stable supply capabilities-factors that provide a robust foundation. However, even with this "confidence derived from scale," a sense of vigilance remains essential: currently, exports are largely concentrated in the realm of general-purpose materials, with much of the growth serving merely to temporarily fill supply gaps overseas. Once the impact of geopolitical conflicts subsides, deeper contradictions within the domestic rubber and plastics industry-such as structural imbalances between supply and demand, and dampened market expectations-may become even more pronounced. As the global petrochemical industry once again turns its gaze toward the stability and resilience of rubber and plastics supply chains, how should China's industry recognize, adapt to, and drive change in order to forge a new path toward high-quality development?
**A Dual Dilemma Amidst the "Acid Test" of Profitability**
According to the latest analysis of industry economic performance released by the China Plastics Processing Industry Association, China's plastics products sector generated 2.2 trillion yuan in operating revenue in 2025-a year-on-year decline of 2.9%-while total profits fell by 7.7% compared to the previous year. The rubber and plastics industry is currently grappling with a difficult developmental paradox: "increased production without increased revenue, and increased revenue without increased profit." The underlying causes of this dilemma warrant a deeper investigation.
On one hand, competition among low-end, general-purpose products is characterized by severe homogenization. Chen Huimin, Director of the Chemical Market Research Office at the Petrochemical Institute of the China Petroleum Planning & Engineering Institute, observes: "In recent years, the production capacity of my country's rubber and plastics sector has been undergoing a period of accelerated expansion; however, due to insufficient technical accumulation and experiential depth, this newly added capacity remains concentrated within the mid-to-low-end segments of the market."
On the other hand, the supply of high-end products suffers from significant deficiencies. "The reliance on imports for high-end products remains persistently high, creating 'bottleneck' risks within critical links of the industrial chain," states Zhang Yong, a Senior Expert in the Rubber and Plastics Department at the East China Chemical Sales Company. He notes that in fields such as high-performance resins, specialty rubbers, and medical- or electronics-grade rubber and plastic materials, the domestic industry's core processes, catalysts, and formulation technologies still lag behind international advanced standards.
Notably, however, significant breakthroughs have already been achieved in the domestic production of certain high-end products. For instance, Dushanzi Petrochemical has successfully achieved mass production of domestically developed POE (Polyolefin Elastomer), marking a pivotal milestone in China's drive toward self-sufficiency in high-end chemical products. Zhu Wenjin, General Manager and Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of Northwest Chemical Sales Company, stated: "The successful mass production of POE-and its achievement of import substitution-stands as a highly successful case study, demonstrating that our R&D and production capabilities are rapidly advancing."