International Trade Dynamics
1. Export Data
In the first eight months of 2026, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.63 million tons, an increase of 2% compared to the previous year.
Thailand's dry rubber exports in August: 167,400 tons, with a cumulative export of 1.3667 million tons from January to August, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the previous year.
Côte d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2026, rubber exports were 1.23 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the previous year.
2. Impact of EU Anti-dumping Measures
The final ruling of the EU's anti-dumping investigation on Chinese semi-rubber tires was implemented in July. The tax rates range from 4.3% to 45.3%, which will increase the export costs.
Market Outlook
Short-term trend: It is expected that the price of natural rubber will fluctuate and move in a relatively strong direction.
Supply side: The concern of El Niño-induced production reduction remains strong, but the production areas are gradually entering the peak production period.
Demand side: Exports from the EU have resilience (growth in commercial vehicle production), while the domestic demand structure is differentiated (semi-rubber tires are constrained by inventory).
Risk factors: Geopolitical factors lead to energy supply risks, which push up the cost of synthetic rubber raw materials.