Fundamentals: RU: Tapping in the Hainan production area is more than halfway complete, with southern and western regions expected to cease tapping completely by the end of January. In terms of demand, concentrated latex consumption is performing reasonably well, but actual shipments have only improved slightly, and overall demand is weaker than the same period last year (weak). The progress of warehouse receipt registration needs to be monitored; the fundamentals of RU itself are not significantly contradictory, and short-term trends are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and BR market conditions. RU is expected to remain volatile.
NR: Raw materials in the peak production season are showing resistance to price declines, and it remains to be seen whether this strength will continue. Be wary of speculation on production cuts (strong); although export profits have turned negative, Thai factories are still shipping actively against the backdrop of increased arbitrage positions in the domestic market; tire demand remains stable; inventory continues to accumulate seasonally, the magnitude of which is in line with expectations and does not constitute significant negative pressure; NR is easily affected by supply-side factors in the short term, and there is strong support below, so the trend is expected to be volatile but slightly bullish.
RU5-9 spread: Neutral. As of January 7th, the RU05-09 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week.
RU-NR price spread: Neutral. As of January 7th, the RU-NR price spread was 3040 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Production area weather: Neutral. Overall rainfall in the main production areas has decreased compared to the previous period, and the total rainfall remains moderate.
Thai supply: Neutral to slightly bullish. Production in the Thai-Cambodian border area accounts for only 5.6% of the national total, posing little actual hindrance to rubber tapping, and the dominant logic of the peak production season remains unchanged.
Domestic supply: Neutral to slightly bearish. The Yunnan production area has stopped tapping, Hainan has stopped more than 50% of its tapping, and the southern and western regions will continue tapping until the end of January.
Tires: Neutral. The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tires is 47.05 days, a +0.19 day increase compared to the previous period and a +5.16 day increase year-on-year. The overall tire market is relatively stable.
Concentrated latex products: Neutral to slightly bearish. Finished product orders are performing generally; actual shipments have not yet shown significant improvement and are below the level of the same period last year.
Social inventory: Neutral. As of January 4th, the total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 815,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the previous period. As of January 4th, China's total inventory of light-colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous week.
Futures Inventory: RU Neutral, NR Neutral
As of January 4th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's RU inventory was 100,700 tons; NR inventory was 58,000 tons.
Non-standard Price Spread: Neutral to Weak. As of January 7th, the price spread between Thai mixed rubber spot price and the RU main contract was -1080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.
As of January 7th, the price spread between Thai mixed rubber spot price and the NR main contract was 240.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193.25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.