In 2025, the price center of rubber products generally shifted downwards, a stark contrast to the strong upward trend in 2024.
According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring data, except for natural rubber, which showed relative resilience and maintained a price level in the upper-middle range of the past five years, other products fell to their lowest levels in the past five years, with some even reaching their lowest prices in the past five years.
Products that repeatedly hit new five-year lows during the year include butadiene and its downstream products such as styrene-butadiene rubber, polybutadiene rubber, SBS, nitrile latex, and styrene-butadiene latex, as well as carbon black, accelerators, and antioxidants. As shown in Figure 1, the smaller the percentage (historical percentile) corresponding to a product, the lower the position of that product's lowest monthly average price in 2025 compared to the monthly average prices of the past five years (2021-2025); for example, a historical percentile of 0% indicates that the lowest monthly average price in 2025 has fallen to the lowest level in the past five years.
The weakening of rubber product prices in 2025 is mainly related to multiple factors, including external policy disturbances, reduced cost pressure, and supply growth exceeding demand growth. First, US tariff policies triggered concerns about demand prospects in the industry chain, leading to a rapid decline in rubber product prices; secondly, the tight supply and high prices of butadiene eased, and the price center continued to shift downwards, lowering the production costs of downstream synthetic rubber and suppressing prices; in addition, new production capacity for most products was continuously released, maintaining supply growth, while demand growth was weak, resulting in supply growth exceeding demand growth and a downward shift in the price center.
Although natural rubber prices were also in a downward trend, they showed relative resilience compared to other products, which is related to the frequent occurrence of abnormal weather in the main producing areas, the reduced willingness to plant new crops leading to slower supply growth, and the relatively resilient demand growth.